Economists Maintain Malaysia's 2024 Exports Forecast after Poor Trade Performance in 2023
UOB Global Economics and Markets Research said that it maintained Malaysia's 2024 export growth forecast of 3.5 percent for now while continuously monitoring the development of the Red Sea crisis and other geopolitical risks including elections in major economies across the year.
According to the research house, there are signs of a further recovery in regional trade amid an expected upturn in the global tech cycle and continued recovery of the Chinese economy.
In view of improving electrical and electronic products (E&E) exports and better export performance reported by several regional countries, MIDF Research maintained its projection that external trade will recover this year.
It expected Malaysia's goods exports and imports to rebound in 2024 and grow 5.2 percent and 4.4 percent respectively.
"Nevertheless, we opine several downside risks could affect global trade this year such as increased geopolitical and trade tensions, sharper slowdown in major economies and still sluggish global manufacturing activities," it said.
TA Securities maintained its forecast for Malaysia's exports and imports to register a nominal growth of 4.8 percent and 4.7 percent respectively in 2024, after weak trade performance in 2023.
Its optimism for this year is grounded in the anticipated resurgence of China's economy.
It said the positive outlook for China's economic expansion adds another layer of optimism to the overall economic landscape, potentially contributing to broader regional and global economic growth.
4155/v
