Scientists Warn of Imminent Climate “Tipping Points”
New research finds that multiple climate “tipping points” are likely to be triggered if global policies continue on their current path, the journal Earth System Dynamics reported.
Scientists evaluated the risk of tipping across 16 critical components of the Earth’s system — including the collapse of major ice sheets, the loss of tropical coral reefs, and the dieback of vast forests.
Under current policies and projected warming, their most conservative estimate shows a 62% average risk of crossing one or more tipping points. However, the study also highlights that adopting more sustainable pathways with lower greenhouse gas emissions could significantly reduce this risk.
The study, by the universities of Exeter and Hamburg, also found that carbon released by certain tipping points (Amazon rainforest dieback and permafrost thaw) is unlikely to cause enough warming to trigger other tipping points.
“The good news from our study is that the power to prevent climate tipping points is still in our hands,” said lead author Jakob Deutloff.
“By moving towards a more sustainable future with lower emissions, the risk of triggering these tipping points is significantly reduced. And it appears that breaching tipping points within the Amazon and the permafrost region should not necessarily trigger others.”
A “tipping point” occurs when a small change tips a system into a new state, causing significant and long-term transformation.
The study assessed tipping point probabilities in five different scenarios, known as shared socioeconomic pathways (SSPs).
Professor Tim Lenton, from Exeter’s Global Systems Institute, said: “Climate tipping points could have devastating consequences for humanity. It is clear that we are currently on a dangerous trajectory – with tipping points likely to be triggered unless we change course rapidly. We need urgent global action – including the triggering of ‘positive tipping points’ in our societies and economies – to reach a safe and sustainable future.”
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