How Climate Change Could Decimate Two-Thirds of Temperate Rainforests

This research represents the first global assessment of how rising temperatures threaten these unique ecosystems. Using maps of tree cover, forest health, and climate data, scientists analyzed the extent to which temperate rainforests have already been impacted by human activity and how climate change could push many regions to a critical tipping point, the journal Earth’s Future reported.

The study’s results are stark. In the worst-case scenario, 68% of the world’s temperate rainforests—and up to 90% in certain regions—could disappear within decades. Under current emissions reduction commitments, 23% of these forests would still be lost. However, if fossil fuel emissions are drastically reduced, this loss could be limited to just 9%, underscoring the urgent need for swift climate action.

Temperate rainforests are restricted to areas with cool and moist climates. Countries which have temperate rainforests include Canada, USA, Chile, Japan, Australia, New Zealand, and the UK.

Despite covering less than 1% of the Earth’s land surface, they are recognized for their global ecological importance and carbon storage properties with intact temperate rainforests having higher carbon density than forests in other latitudes.

Ben Silver, a Research Fellow from Leeds’ School of Earth and Environment led the study. He said: “Unmitigated climate change is a disaster for temperate rainforest in the UK and globally, as they cannot survive the kinds of high summer temperatures which we are starting to observe more regularly and are only predicted to worsen in future climate change simulations.

“Our study also shows that if we work hard to slow climate change it is not too late to save the world’s temperate rainforests.

We hope our study will support the conservation of temperate rainforests by identifying those areas that are the least or the most vulnerable to climate change, and where there is potential to restore forest.”

In the UK temperate rainforest are found along the UK’s western seaboard, including the West coast of Scotland, North and West Wales, Devon, Cornwall, Cumbria, and parts of Northern Ireland.

The Woodland Trust, which recognises temperate rainforests as a key conservation and restoration priority, describes them as one of the most biodiverse habitats, with the high humidity and low temperature range creating the perfect conditions for moisture-loving lichens and bryophytes (mosses and liverworts).

Temperate rainforests now cover less than 1% of land in Great Britain and last year governments in both Scotland and England announced plans to restore them.

The study concludes that the UK has more potential for restoration than anywhere else in the world as it hosts a quarter of the world’s unforested temperate rainforest climate zone. The study also found that UK rainforests are resilient to low and medium amounts of future warming.

Professor Dominick Spracklen, a co-author of the study said: “The UK could and should be a global leader in restoration of temperate rainforests. New funding and bold action by large landowners are urgently needed to help deliver government targets for temperate rainforest restoration.”

Dr Dominick A. DellaSala, Chief Scientist of the U.S group Wild Heritage, and one of the authors of the study, added: “All the world’s rainforests are the ‘lungs of the planet’ that must be protected and restored as natural climate solutions to avoid the worst of global overheating. Temperate rainforests need to take their place alongside tropical rainforests and the boreal forests of the north as strategically vital to a safe climate.”

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