Brazilian Market's Growth Forecast Nearly Unchanged despite End of Monetary Easing
According to the bank's weekly Focus survey of leading financial institutions, analysts slightly increased their GDP growth forecast for 2024 from 2.08 to 2.09 percent, while keeping it steady at 2 percent for 2025.
At its latest meeting last week, the Copom maintained the Selic rate, the economy's basic interest rate, at 10.50 percent annually. Analysts expect the rate to hold steady for the rest of year, and gradually decline to 9.50 percent next year.
Analysts raised the inflation forecast from 3.96 to 3.98 percent for this year and from 3.80 to 3.85 percent for next year, both of which remain within the official target range of 3 percent with a tolerance of 1.5 percentage points above or below.
Regarding the exchange market for Brazil's currency, which currently trades at 5.40 reals to the U.S. dollar, analysts expect the currency to trade at 5.15 reals to the dollar by the end of the year and next year.
As to the balance of trade, analysts anticipate a surplus of 81.78 billion dollars in 2024 and of 76 billion dollars in 2025.
Foreign direct investment in Brazil is projected to reach 70 billion dollars in 2024 and 73 billion dollars in 2025.
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