Iraq authorizes PMF to respond, signaling formal entry into regional confrontation

Iraq’s recent decision to authorize retaliatory measures by the Popular Mobilization Forces (PMF) and other security units represents a major shift from years of restraint. The move signals Baghdad’s readiness to defend its sovereignty directly against US and Israeli operations and marks a new phase in regional confrontation.

The government’s summoning of the US embassy’s chargé d’affaires and submission of a formal protest underscore Iraq’s intention to frame its stance within international law. Domestic pressures, including widespread public protests against foreign attacks, have reinforced the legitimacy of this more assertive policy.

The deaths of PMF commanders in US and Israeli strikes, including Saad Duwai al-Baiji, have further accelerated Baghdad’s move toward a proactive security doctrine. Support from political and religious leaders has created an internal consensus, ensuring coordinated action without sparking domestic divisions.

The decision is expected to alter regional deterrence dynamics. Direct Iraqi responses to attacks could raise operational costs for the US and its allies, prompt a reconfiguration of foreign military deployments, and reduce external influence over Iraq’s security matters.

Short-term effects may include increased reciprocal attacks and regional tension. In the medium term, internal cohesion and regional support could strengthen Iraq’s position as an independent actor, offering a model for state-resistance cooperation. Long-term, this development may reshape the regional security order, giving local actors a larger role while reducing dependence on external powers.