U.S. CPI Up 2.9 Percent in July as Inflation Continues to Cool
According to the report released by the Bureau of Labor Statistics, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) increased 0.2 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis in July after declining 0.1 percent in June. In May, the CPI remained unchanged.
The latest inflation report showed that the so-called core CPI, which excludes food and energy, increased 0.2 percent in July after rising 0.1 percent in June and 0.2 percent in May. The core CPI has risen 3.2 percent over the last 12 months, the smallest 12-month increase in that index since April 2021.
The index for shelter rose 0.4 percent in July, accounting for nearly 90 percent of the monthly increase in the all-items index. The energy index was unchanged over the month, after declining in the two preceding months. The index for food increased 0.2 percent in July, as it did in June.
Indexes that increased in July include shelter, motor vehicle insurance, household furnishings and operations, education, recreation, and personal care. The indexes for used cars and trucks, medical care, airline fares, and apparel were among those that decreased over the month.
After its two-day policy meeting on July 30-31, the U.S. Federal Reserve left interest rates unchanged at a 22-year high of 5.25 percent to 5.5 percent, while hinting that a rate cut might come as soon as September.
When asked whether a September rate cut is a reasonable expectation, Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell told reporters at a press conference that "the broad sense of the committee is that the economy is moving closer to the point at which it will be appropriate to reduce our policy rate."
"We think the time (for a rate cut) is approaching. If we get the data that we hope we get, a reduction or policy rate could be on the table at the September meeting," the Fed chief said.
The Chicago Mercantile Exchange Group's FedWatch Tool, which acts as a barometer for the market's expectation of the Fed funds target rate, showed that the probability of the Fed cutting rates at the September meeting is 58.5 percent as of Wednesday morning. A month ago, the probability was 90.3 percent.
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